Romania’s public debt increased during the first eleven months of 2025 by RON 157 billion, or EUR 30.9 billion at the end-of-November exchange rate, to RON 1.12 trillion (EUR 220.3 billion) or 60.2% of the GDP, according to data published by the Finance Ministry. 

The increase in the country’s public debt accounts for 8.5% of the GDP, but the debt-to-GDP ratio has increased more slowly (by 5.4 percentage points) due to the rising nominal GDP.

Speaking of GDP,  the Finance Ministry has used the latest available four-quarter figure, meaning at the end of September 2025 – meaning that the revised debt-to-GDP figure will drop below 60% after the full-2025 GDP data is released.

Based on the official projection for last year’s GDP, Romania’s debt-to-GDP ratio was still 59% at the end of November. Under its recent update, Fitch estimated it was some 59% of GDP at end-2025, above the BBB current median of 56%, and projected that the debt/GDP ratio will rise to 63% in 2027 and, without further measures, will continue to climb.

Part of the impressive 8.5% of GDP rise in Romania’s public debt, specifically some RON 25 billion (EUR 5 billion, 1.3% of GDP), was caused by the local currency depreciation in May. The foreign-denominated debt increased when expressed in local currency, offsetting part of the long-term dividend gained by Romania, in terms of sovereign indebtedness, from its local currency’s real appreciation. 

For this reason (local currency depreciation) and the net issuance of new foreign-denominated debt, Romania’s foreign-denominated currency denominated in local currency surged by 21.9% year-to-date, and its share in total debt increased from 51.5% to 54%. The increase was RON 109 billion, or EUR 20 billion converted at the end-of-period exchange rate. The local currency-denominated debt, in contrast, increased by only 10.2% ytd, or RON 42.7 billion. 

When it comes to the internal versus external markets, Romania’s public debt increased predominantly on the foreign market (external market) namely by RON 91 billion (EUR 18 billion, out of which some EUR 4 billion caused by the exchange rate effects and EUR 14 billion the net increase in external public debt) – versus RON 65 billion rise in the stock of debt on the local market. 

The differential matches the external debt increase caused by the local currency weakening - but this can not be fully attributed to the external debt since one-fifth of the internal public debt is denominated in euros. Overall, the figures indicate balanced financing from the internal/external markets with marginal predominance of the internal market. 

For this year’s financing needs, Erste Group started from a gross requirement of RON 286 billion (EUR 57 billion), equivalent to 13.5% of GDP, the upper end of the range cited by Romanian authorities in early December. Treasury head Ștefan Nanu has since revised the range to RON 265 –275 billion. 

Net issuance is estimated at RON 136 billion (EUR 27 billion), or 6.4% of GDP, with rollovers and redemptions totalling RON 150 billion (EUR 30 billion). Treasury head Stefan Nanu said domestic (gross) financing would be RON 160 billion to RON 170 billion, leaving RON 105 billion (EUR 20 billion) as (gross) foreign financing.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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