Romania’s statistics office revised slightly upward the Q3 GDP growth rate from 1.6% y/y to 1.7% y/y under the national methodology and from 1.2% y/y to 1.3% y/y under the Eurostat methodology, which maintains the consensus expectations for an overall economic growth of just under 1% for the entire year 2025. For the first three quarters, the growth rate was 0.9% y/y under the national methodology and 1.5% y/y under the Eurostat calculation. 

The revised data confirmed the key roles played by construction and agriculture for the Q3 economic expansion and the positive contribution made by industry. 

The statistics office revised the households’ consumption from 0.8% y/y to 1.4% y/y while revising the investments (gross fixed capital formation) from +8.3% y/y to +5.0% y/y, in Q3.

Depending on the economic performance in Q4, Romania’s overall 2025 GDP growth will end up above 1% y/y (rather unlikely) or just under 1% y/y (more likely). After the 0.2% q/q decline in Q3, the analysts expect further economic contraction in Q4 amid the prolonged impact of the restrictive budgetary measures, which would define “technical recession.” 

For steady q/q economic growth in Q4 (seasonally adjusted terms), Romania’s economy would end up with 1.3% y/y growth in 2025. A major 2% q/q decline would result in 0.8% y/y growth. 

More importantly, however, is whether the economy will recover to stronger growth in 2026. The absorption of EU funds under the Resilience facility and Cohesion Fund will play a key role in this year’s economic growth. Disbursements under both schemes are expected by the government at up to EUR 15 billion, compared to a GDP that reached EUR 370 billion in four quarters to September 2025 and will be near EUR 400 billion in 2026. 

Prolonged impact of the fiscal austerity, expected to diminish this year, remains the main concern for the country’s economic recovery.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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