Romania’s economy expanded by 0.6% overall in 2025 but entered a technical recession at the end of the year, after two consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction, according to flash data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) on Friday, February 13, as quoted by Ziarul Financiar. Prime minister Ilie Bolojan said in a first reaction that "we are not going through a crisis," as this is "part of the anticipated and inevitable cost" of a transition that "will ultimately lead us to a solid economy."

In the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP rose by 0.1% year-on-year on a gross series but declined by 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with the same period of 2024. Quarter-on-quarter, the economy shrank by 1.9% in real terms compared with the third quarter of 2025.

A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter GDP decline, seasonally adjusted. 

In the third quarter of 2025, GDP had already fallen by 0.2% compared with the second quarter, although it was up 1.5% year-on-year.

Earlier in 2025, the economy recorded modest annual growth rates of 0.3% in both the first and second quarters, and 1.7% in the third quarter, in gross series. However, the late-year contraction pushed the economy into technical recession territory.

In a first reaction on social media, Liberal (PNL) prime minister Ilie Bolojan confirmed the small economic growth in 2025 and said the technical recession is "part of the anticipated and inevitable cost of this transition, which will ultimately lead us to a solid economy."

"Romania’s economic growth in 2025 stood at 0.6%, amid a rapid shift, within just six months, of the economic model that had pushed us against the wall. We have begun the transition from a model based on deficit and consumption - seemingly generating prosperity, but in fact destructive - to one grounded in investment, productivity, exports and budgetary discipline," the PM said.

"The temporary technical recession is part of the anticipated and inevitable cost of this transition, which will ultimately lead us to a solid economy, healthy growth and real prosperity based on what we produce, not on increasingly numerous and increasingly expensive loans."

Ilie Bolojan also noted that "we are not going through a crisis," adding that Romania is going through a period of "necessary economic correction in order to build a more stable and stronger economy that can deliver long-term prosperity."

In his turn, Social Democrat (PSD) leader Sorin Grindeanu stated that the technical recession represents “a disgrace for the governing coalition.” He further claimed there is a main culprit “for the wrong direction,” most likely referring to prime minister Ilie Bolojan, whom he accuses of stubbornness “taken to absurd levels, a constant obsession with image, and personal calculations," Digi24 reported.

"After months of austerity, sacrifices, absurd taxes and rising prices, the Statistics Institute has officially confirmed what millions of Romanians already feel in their pockets: we are not heading in the right direction, with an economy that has entered technical recession. It is a painful reality and a disgrace for the entire governing coalition, including for us," Grindeanu said in a message on Facebook.

The European Commission estimated in November 2025 that Romania’s GDP would grow by 0.7% for the full year and by 1.1% in 2026, citing fiscal consolidation measures and inflationary pressures that have dampened both private and public consumption. The autumn forecast was revised downward from an earlier projection of 1.4% growth for 2025.

The World Bank also lowered its outlook, projecting growth of 0.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, according to its January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, according to Ziarul Financiar.

irina.marica@romania-insider.com

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