Prime minister Ilie Bolojan admitted that Romania's economy may have entered a technical recession episode in H2 last year, implying that it might extend in the first quarter of 2026 – but argued that it is a reflection of the fiscal consolidation and the economy returned to more stable fundamentals.

“For years, we have consumed much more than we could afford. We have been consuming. When you stop pumping a lot of money, demand obviously decreases,” he explained in an interview given to Digi24, as reported by Economica.net.

Bolojan also commented on this year's economic growth, propped by the abundant Resilience Facility funds and cohesion policy schemes. After two years with modest growth of under 1%, Romania’s executive will build the 2026 budget on assumptions of similarly modest growth, although independent projections are a bit more encouraging (1.5%-2%). 

The largest part of the growth in 2024 and 2025 was owed to the absorption of EU funds (RRF and MFF). The Resilience Facility, however, expires at the end of this year – which poses tougher problems for the budget planning and economic growth next year.

Romania will publish the flash estimate for Q4 GDP data on Friday, February 13. There are broad expectations for negative q/q performance, which would signify a technical recession after the similar decline in Q3, but the overall growth rate for the entire year may exceed 1%.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Gov.ro)