Romania’s statistics office INS confirmed the economic slowdown in 2025, revising the annual growth rate marginally to 0.7% from 0.6% under the flash estimate, according to preliminary data published on March 6. 

The growth episodes were concentrated in Q3 (+1.7% y/y), after the political stabilisation in July, judging from the methodology used by the national statistics, or in Q2-Q3 (+2.5% y/y and +1.3% y/y respectively) under the chain-linked methodology used by Eurostat. In any case, the economic growth in Q4 expressed in annual terms weakened significantly in the last quarter of the year and turned negative (-1.3% y/y) under the chain-linked methodology.

Under the same chain-linked methodology and in seasonally adjusted terms, the quarterly economic growth has been negative in both Q3 (-0.1% q/q) and Q4 (-1.9% q/q), defining a technical recession episode. 

The outlook for the first quarter of 2026 remains moderate. A modest recovery was expected for H2 before the deterioration in the expectations for global energy prices prompted by the Middle East conflict. 

Significant growth in the sectors of construction (+7.0% y/y) and IT&C (+4.1%), plus the recovery in agriculture (+6.6% y/y) after weaker crops in 2024, balanced the weaker value added generated by the sector of services – particularly B2B services (-4.0% y/y).

On the domestic demand side, the final consumption remained constant in 2025 compared to 2024, in comparable (volume) terms, while the gross fixed capital formation strengthened by 4.0% y/y, particularly thanks to wide advances in Q3 (+.1% y/y) and Q4 (+7.9% y/y). The negative change in inventory in Q3 and particularly in Q4 has moderated the overall domestic demand that remained robust in Q3 (+2.3% y/y) but turned negative (-0.16% y/y) in Q4. 

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Antonyesse/Dreamstime.com)