The average net wage in Romania, expressed in real terms, plunged by 7.2% in July-August when the consumer prices jumped by 4.8% and then recovered by 2.9% in September-November after the consumer prices stabilised (rose by only +1.3%), according to data published by the statistics office INS on January 16. Overall, the real average wage in Romania was, as of November, 4.5% lower than in June – before the price shock prompted by the electricity price liberalisation and the VAT rate hike – and was slightly rising.

The subsequent household income correction was visible in the volume of retail sales, which contracted by 3%-4% compared to the period before the price shock in July-August. 

In principle, such demand-side factors should facilitate disinflation during the coming quarters. From nearly 10%, the headline inflation is expected to drop sharply in July-August on base effects and reach 3.7% y/y at the end of the year (according to the central bank’s projection).

The wage correction bore a painful social impact, but it restored the macroeconomic balance: the wage share, specifically the share of GDP distributed as gross wages, gradually dropped to 37.4% in Q3 after it peaked to 41% in Q4, 2024 – significantly above the 35%-37.5% range seen over the previous years. 

The state forecasting body CNP expects, under the Winter Forecast, the average wage to contract by another 0.9% y/y in 2026 (real terms), after the plunge estimated at 1.1% y/y in 2025. The wage share, indicating, among others, the competitiveness of the Romanian economy, will consequently further improve.

Under a broader perspective, the real wage in Romania dropped as of November 2025 to the levels seen in late 2003 - early 2024, before the populist measures taken by the government in 2024 during an intense electoral year. More precisely, the net average wage increased by 2.4% over the past two years to November 2025. It is still an improvement – yet not equally shared across sectors. 

The wages in the budgetary sector performed generally below average (except for healthcare), where the wages rose by 2.8% in real terms. In manufacturing, the real advance was 2.1%. But the low wages in HoReCa rose by a real 13%, while those in the water transport sector plunged by 33% y/y on a high base generated by transit of merchandise to and from Ukraine. 

iulian@romania-insider.com

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