Romanian business confidence has deteriorated sharply, with the latest CONFIDEX index pointing to a growing sense of caution across the private sector, according to a new survey released on Tuesday, January 27. The CONFIDEX index fell to 47.2 from 51.3 in the previous edition, marking the largest single-edition decline since the study was launched in 2020.

The drop of nearly seven points brought business confidence back to levels last seen in the first half of 2021, reflecting a shift from guarded optimism to heightened prudence among Romanian managers and entrepreneurs.

The survey, conducted by Impetum Group in partnership with Romanian Business Leaders, noted mounting concerns linked to international political and economic instability, geopolitical volatility, and regional macroeconomic pressures. At the domestic level, respondents pointed to legislative and fiscal unpredictability, as well as expectations of budget tightening and lower public investment, as key factors weighing on sentiment.

Over the past six months, 40% of respondents said their company’s situation has worsened, while most managers expressed dissatisfaction with the evolution of their business, citing either declining performance or stagnation. Perceptions of the wider economy at sectoral, national, European, and global levels remain largely negative or unchanged.

Despite this, confidence is relatively higher when it comes to respondents’ own companies, where managers believe they retain greater control through strategic decisions. Even so, 30% expect their company’s financial situation and profitability to continue to deteriorate in 2026.

Sectoral results showed notable differences. Agriculture and IT emerged as the most pessimistic sectors, affected by cost volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and external pressures. On the other hand, services and trade were the most optimistic, supported by more stable demand and greater flexibility.

Looking ahead, the index signals rising caution for the coming months. Nearly four in five managers expect the legislative and fiscal environment to become less business-friendly, while a majority anticipate currency depreciation, reduced public investment, and higher unemployment. Expectations of easing inflation remain limited. 

At the same time, the survey showed a modest increase in confidence in the government, from 3% in H1 2025 to 18% in this edition, alongside continued trust among entrepreneurs in each other and in the private sector’s role in supporting economic stability.

“Despite the pressures, an essential signal seems to be emerging: Romania’s business environment has become more mature. The increase in confidence in the government indicates a clear understanding that macroeconomic rebalancing also involves difficult decisions. The gap between perceptions of the economy and confidence in one’s own company does not mean paralysis. This is not a moment for ‘freeze’, but for ‘fight’. Entrepreneurs appear mentally prepared to move forward, even in a difficult context, because they know that long-term stability is built through adaptation and consistency,” said Andrei Cionca, CEO of Impetum Group.

The study also showed that declining sales and demand remain the main concern for 43% of respondents, while worries about tax increases have grown. In terms of opportunities, managers increasingly pointed to product diversification, international expansion, and digitalisation.

In 2026, managers’ efforts will focus on measures that support business stability and growth, particularly increasing sales (51%), improving customer relationships, and company digitalisation (25%). Priorities remain largely similar to those in the first half of the year, with a notable rise in interest in promotion and visibility, from 14% to 20%.

irina.marica@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: press release)