UniCredit Bank begins 2026 with an economic growth forecast of 1.5% for Romania this year, nearly double compared to an estimated economic advance of only 0.8% in 2025. The inflation is expected to fall to 4.5% from 9.8% at the end of 2025, with the National Bank of Romania (BNR) potentially cutting the policy rate to 5.5% from 6.5%, under an optimistic scenario. 

The forecast, cited by Ziarul Financiar, was explained by the bank's chief economist, Anca Negrescu, who stressed that the country's growth remains below potential.

Despite the domestic public perception that Romania is in crisis, especially after the increase in taxes and duties, the increase in inflation and the decrease in purchasing power, economists' opinion is quite positive about Romania for 2026, especially since a return to private investment, a continuation of public investment, an increase in domestic demand and a return to consumption after the decrease in inflation are expected, explained Negrescu.

Negrescu said she expected the public construction sector to continue to grow, the industry to recover, IT to grow, and agriculture to be on the rise, but this sector depends on the weather. She also mentioned at the FT CEE conference in Vienna.

Also, consumption could return to positive territory, especially after the decline of the last year, and I expect an improvement in the trade deficit area, she added.

Domestic political instability would be the biggest failure to meet the deficit target, which must decrease from 8.4% to 6% of GDP, plus a reduction in investments, especially since, through a fiscal adjustment without increasing public investments, it is difficult to maintain a positive sentiment, the UniCredit economist also said.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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