Romania’s retail sales volume contracted by 3.6% y/y in the fourth quarter of the year (Q4) 2025 as the private consumption remained subdued, stagnating in seasonally adjusted terms some 4% below the levels seen in the first half of the year or in the last quarter of 2024, according to data published by the statistics office INS. Private consumption measured by this metric returned to the level of 2023 – even above, when it comes to the non-food sales.

The annual decline was steeper in the food segment (-5.1% y/y), while the non-food segment confirmed its resilience (-3.3% y/y), and the car fuel sales (-1.7% y/y) were less impacted by the drop in households’ real incomes.

For the entire year 2025, the retail sales in Romania edged marginally down by 0.2% y/y – after a combined 10% surge over the past two years, though.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, the retail sales index dropped further by 1.4% q/q in Q4 – after the 2.3% q/q decline in Q3. But this is an effect of July sales still thriving (+5.4% y/y) before the VAT rate hike in August. Since August, the sales remained roughly constant in seasonally-adjusted terms.

Retail sales are visibly correlated with (and caused by) the average real wage, which contracted by 4.2% y/y in Q3 and by some 5% y/y in Q4.

The households avoided adjusting their consumption in line with the real incomes – and this indicates there is room for further decline in consumption during the first quarters of 2026, particularly as the costly energy bills will seriously erode their budgets due to the cold winter. Later in H2, as the inflation eases (prices remain stable), there exists a possibility for a slight recovery in private consumption – but it would be particularly modest compared to the rally seen in the past years (particularly 2024).

To put things in perspective, the retail sales in recent months (post-austerity) have decreased by some 4% compared to the average level seen towards the end of 2024 and in the first part of 2025 – but it is in line with the average level of 2023. 

The social impact of the austerity measures imposed in 2025 (constant public wages and pensions, electricity price liberalisation, VAT rate hike) was therefore not dramatic, on average. 

However, the food sales lag currently slightly below the 2023 average, while the non-food sales are some 10% higher. This confirms uneven distribution of the impact, with the lower-income households hit harder. Separately, car fuel sales are currently above the typical levels seen in 2023 – when the high prices after Russia invaded Ukraine forced households to avoid unnecessary trips.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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