The industrial production volume in Romania contracted by 1.1% y/y in January-November and by 0.9% y/y in the 12 months to November, after a disappointing performance (-2.9% y/y) in November, according to data published by the statistics office INS. The production dropped by 0.7% m/m in November after adjustment for seasonality.

The state forecasting body CNP, under its December forecast, projected moderate industrial recovery in Romania this year, to gain momentum up to rates of over 2% per year during the next few years. 

The industrial recovery in Germany and Romania's EUR 16 billion allocation for procurement under the SAFE defence scheme are the main elements underpinning the positive forecast. But even bullish activity in Germany would take time to produce effects in Romania, and, separately, there is no guarantee the SAFE money will be spent in the country (the projects to be financed are kept secret). The companies manufacturing armoured vehicles and those producing powders (chemical industry) could benefit from the scheme.

The growth would be driven in 2026 and in the coming years by the pharma industry, the processing of plastics, the production of electronic and optical parts, as well as the production of metallic constructions and construction materials or furniture, according to CNP. The production of road vehicles would still edge down this year to recover gradually in the coming years.

In the core manufacturing segment, the industrial production decline was 1.4% for January-November and 1.1% y/y for the 12 months to November. The decline is not particularly abrupt – but it has lasted for three years already, and the country's industrial activity is trailing below the pre-pandemic level. 

The decline was ample across most of the industries in 2025, with only few exceptions: the food industry advanced by +1.8% y/y in January-November, production of pharmaceuticals by +17.8% y.y and the furniture manufacturing by +16.3% y/y, The volume of services for the extractive operations also advanced by 22.8% as the Neptun Deep project is gaining momentum and Black Sea Oil and Gas consolidates its offshore operations. 

The flagship automobile industry, included in the broader segment of road vehicles (-4.7% y/y in January-November), posted a negative performance. Both the energy-intensive industries, such as metallurgy and the chemical industry, as well as labour-intensive segments (light industry), marked negative performances last year.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Andrii Yalanskyi/Dreamstime.com)