Romania’s industrial production index contracted by 4.0 y/y in January, dragged down by a major 6.4% y/y plunge in manufacturing, partly offset by more intense activity (+8.6% y/y) in the sector of utilities. Mining and quarrying contracted by 2.0% y/y.

The seasonally adjusting industrial output dropped by 3.3% m/m compared to December, dragged down by 5.1% m/m contraction in the core manufacturing industries.

The industrial activity in January 2026, adjusted for seasonal effects, thus reached the lowest level in nearly five years, since the 2020 lockdown period. 

The outlook for February indicates further deterioration. The Manufacturing PMI index calculated by Erste Group’s subsidiary BCR has gradually deteriorated in January and February after the temporary improvement in December still did not push it into the expansionary half of the scale. The index reached 45.8 points on a 0-100 scale in February 2026, the lowest reading on record. 

The sharpest drag came from new orders and output, while suppliers' delivery times remained broadly neutral. There is still no visible improvement in domestic demand, which raises concerns about the outlook for Romania's manufacturing sector.

There were not only the industries with structural vulnerabilities that performed weakly in January. The output in the chemical industry plunged by 19.5% y/y, and the metallurgy posted 8.7% y/y contraction, along with weak performances in the past, generated by the costly energy. The automobile industry continued its negative performance (04.6% y/y in 2025) as well, with a 5.7% y/y contraction in January.

The oil refining industry (+3.9% y/y in 2025) also posted a major 16.8% y/y contraction as Petrotel Lukoil refinery was not in operation, while the rubber and plastic production (+0.6% y/y in 2025), where most major global tyre producers are active, contracted by 8.4% y/y as well.

Industries with robust performances in the past, such as food manufacturing and pharmaceuticals, remained on the positive growth side but slowed down in January to 0.8% y/y and 0.3% y/y, respectively. 

The significant industry of machinery and equipment posted an outstanding 9.8% y/y performance in January despite a modest (-1.6% y/y) performance last year. The clothing manufacturing, which lost significance in Romania’s industry over the past years (-15.1% y/y in 2025), posted a high 7.7% y/y advance in January 2026 without signalling sustainable recovery.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Silviu Matei/Dreamstime.com)