Romania’s economy contracts 1.7% YoY and 0.2% QoQ in Q1 2026
The Romanian economy declined in the first quarter of the year by 1.7% on the gross series, compared with the same period in 2025, and by 1.5% on the seasonally adjusted series, according to flash estimates published Wednesday, May 12, by the National Institute of Statistics.
The same source noted that compared with the last quarter of 2025, GDP decreased by 0.2% in Q1 2026.
This follows a contraction in Q4 2025, when GDP fell by 1.4% in real terms compared with the same period in 2024, and by 1.8% compared with Q3 2025.
Overall, Romania’s economy grew by 0.7% last year, according to data published last week by the National Institute of Statistics. The sectors that contributed were construction, IT&C, and agriculture. Trade, transport, and tourism, together with professional, scientific, and technical activities, administrative services, and support service activities had a negative impact on GDP growth. Industry also had zero contribution to GDP growth, although it has a 16.8% share in its formation.
According to official statistics, food prices increased by +0.5% in April compared with the previous month, while non-food goods increased by +0.4% (gasoline prices fell by 1.2%, while diesel became more expensive by +2.3%). Services, which increased by +2.3% in a single month, significantly influenced inflation. Besides rents, airline tickets also recorded a significant fare increase of +27%, but this is not unusual during the Easter holiday period.
The latest data confirms a downward trend in the Romanian economy, in line with earlier pessimistic estimates. The World Bank estimated Romania’s GDP growth to be 0.5% in 2026, while the European Commission puts it at 1.1%. Romania’s own National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting forecasted economic growth of 1% in 2026.
Meanwhile, annual inflation reached 10.7% in April due to a major and unexpected jump in rents, +33% in a single month. Analysts say this development cannot be linked to the fall of the Romanian currency against the euro, despite the fact that many renters pay their monthly rent in the European currency. This is because the euro began appreciating as early as April 28 and reached a peak on May 6, the day after a no-confidence motion that brought down the Ilie Bolojan government.
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