Romania's Manufacturing PMI index compiled by BCR based on S&P guidelines, improved to 48.9 points in December, recovering from 47.2, the weakest performance in eight months, and still remaining in the contractionary region of the 0-100 scale due to negative contributions of both output (current manufacturing performance) and new orders (reflecting the outlook), according to Erste Research. 

Romania has likely undergone a third consecutive year of declining industrial output in 2026, according to Erste Research, pointing to the marginally weaker PMI index last year: 48.6 points compared to 48.2 in 2025.

Industrial output data as of October 2025, indicating a 0.8% y/y decline for the rolling 12-month period, supports such expectations.

External demand will likely remain a headwind for Romanian manufacturers in the near term, though the expectations are for a relatively better situation in 2026, according to Erste Research's reasoning.

As regards the industry's contribution to the GDP annual dynamics, Erste Research notes the sector's positive contribution in Q3 2025, in line with the PMI values that were better compared to those in the same period of 2024. However, the sector's contribution to the GDP annual dynamics in January-September remains negative and, even considering a positive contribution in Q4 (consistent with the PMI readings), it would remain "at best neutral" in the full year. Romania's GDP is supposed to have increased by around 1% in 2025, although final estimates are yet to be released.

Detailed PMI December analysis reveals that demand was somewhat better in the last month of the year, with fewer survey respondents reporting a decline in output and new orders. Noteworthy is the evolution of the New Export Orders Index, which was at the 50 neutral mark in December. 

This shows that external demand is becoming more supportive. In December, Romanian manufacturers maintained a generally optimistic view of the year ahead, with around 40% anticipating higher production compared to current levels. However, confidence was tempered by the fact that nearly 17% of businesses expected output to decline, pushing overall sentiment to a record survey low.

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iulian@romania-insider.com