Assuming full absorption of the money earmarked to Romania under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) – meaning some 2.7% of GDP, roughly half of the entire PNRR budget – by the end of this year, the PNRR money would contribute 1 percentage point (pp) to the country’s economic growth in 2026, according to a working paper published by the National Bank of Romania (BNR). 

The estimate extrapolates the economic performance during the first years of PNRR implementation (2022-2024), and the authors call for caution, pointing to methodological limitations of the model – furthermore adding that the full absorption hypothesis is a strong assumption. 

By the end of 2025, Romania had received EUR 10.77 billion (EUR 6.45 billion in grants and EUR 4.31 billion in loans), out of which 88% in 2022-2024, while the financing to PNRR-funded projects (co-financing included) reached EUR 14.65 billion (out of which only 42% in 2022-2024). 

2025 stood out by the utilisation of previously disbursed funds, while new disbursements were modest. This year, both disbursements (linked to milestones) and utilisation (implementation of projects) should go hand in hand at high speed. 

The report also discusses the situation Romania may face in 2027, when the country will no longer benefit from PNRR funding, losing access to soft loans and therefore facing an economic slowdown. 

The SAFE scheme may be a replacement – but it is very different in nature (no reforms attached, lower multiplier of spending). Even so, fully absorbed, the scheme is estimated to have a significant impact – potentially comparable with that of PNRR under some optimistic scenarios.

Failure to absorb the PNRR money this year – roughly half of the entire budget of the scheme, as renegotiated in 2025 – would have a negative impact either on the implementation of the projects, or on the budget deficit, if the government decides to fund the projects envisaged from the national budget.

Inter alia, the report estimates that the PNRR had a 1.2% cumulative contribution to the country’s GDP during 2022-2024 (actual 2024 GDP versus GDP under no PNRR scenario).

Speaking of the SAFE scheme, where Romania was earmarked a significant amount of money (EUR 16.7 billion or 4.2% of 2026 GDP, in soft loans), the report estimates its cumulative impact until 2030 at between 1.4% and 3.5% (2030 projected GDP with versus without SAFE). The impact in 2027 is estimated at 0.1%-0.4%. 

The report points to the difference between the PNRR scheme – which has reforms attached and finances investments with higher multipliers – and SAFE, where no reform is attached, and the investments have, by their nature, a lower multiplier.

Speaking of the MFF scheme (Multiannual Financial Framework), the research report finds a 50% pass-through of the rise in the funds disbursed to a country and the GDP growth – meaning a rise in disbursements equal to 1% of GDP would push up the country’s GDP by 0.5% in that particular year and would generate a lasting impact.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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