Romania's budget deficit will decrease from an estimated 8% of GDP in 2025 (better than the government's latest target) to around 6.4% of GDP this year (in line with the initial consolidation goals agreed with the European Commission) and the EU loans will ease the pressure on public funding with the 10-year yields seen as marginally lower at 6.5% in Q4 this year, according to the Erste Research report on the region's fiscal perspectives. 

However, Romania's rating status, including a negative outlook attached to the lowest investment-grade level, will not change until the new prime minister, expected to replace Ilie Bolojan in April 2027, confirms his adherence to the fiscal consolidation policies, according to the analysts of the Austrian financial group.

"Despite some early talks, we do not expect Romania's credit rating outlook to return to stable until rating agencies have some comfort that the new PM, due to be appointed in April 2027, strictly adheres to the fiscal consolidation path," according to the report.

Romania's public debt is seen at reaching 61.3% of GDP at the end of this year and peaking at 67%-68% around 2028-2029 if the 7-year fiscal consolidation plan is followed, from just under 60% at the end of 2025, according to the Group's analysts.

Speaking of this year's public financing, Erste analysts start from a gross financing need of RON 286 billion (EUR 57 billion, 13.5% of GDP) – the upper limit of the range mentioned by the Romanian authorities in early December. However, Treasury chief Stefan Nanu recently updated the range to RON 265 -275 billion. The net issuances would be RON 136 billion (EUR 27 billion, 6.4% of GDP), according to Erste, with the rollover of redemptions at RON 150 billion (EUR 30 billion, 7.1% of GDP). 

Nanu said domestic (gross) financing would be RON 160 billion to RON 170 billion, leaving RON 105 billion (EUR 20 billion) as gross foreign financing.

Erste expects the government to cash EUR 3.5 billion under the Resilience Facility, EUR 2.5 billion as 15% pre-financing under the defence scheme SAFE, and another EUR 1.5 billion in loans from IFIs. 

Based on Erste's estimates and official statements, Romania's gross Eurobond issuance plan is expected to be around EUR 10 billion equivalent, with just over EUR 3 billion in redemptions. 

On the domestic market, short-term financing over the past years of political turmoil generated a large volume of redemptions in 2026.

However, Erste expects the main domestic players – banks and pension funds – to roll over their exposure, including reinvested coupons.

Speaking at a conference in Vienna on January 13, Treasury head Stefan Nanu stressed the lower reliance on the issuance of FX bonds this year: some EUR 7 billion net (EUR 10 billion gross) from EUR 13.5 billion last year, according to Economedia.ro.

"The demand for our debt instruments is very good and, by diversifying instruments and combining external and domestic financing instruments, we will reduce the credit risk spreads related to Eurobonds and continue the downward trend of the lei yield curve," Nanu said in an interview in Vienna.

He confirmed that Romania's budget for 2026 will not be available sooner than mid-February.

"We will have the 2026 budget in mid-February, and given that the budget deficit will be between 6% and 6.5% of GDP, the financing plan for 2026 would be RON 265-275 billion. Of this amount, RON 160-170 billion will be domestic loans, with the retail component remaining at RON 48.5 billion, similar to what we attracted from the population in 2025," Ștefan Nanu, Director General of the State Treasury, present in Vienna, told Profit.ro. 

iulian@romania-insider.com

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