Romania’s CFA Macroeconomic Confidence Index rose in November, recovering part of the losses recorded earlier in October, but remained well below neutral levels on a downward medium-term trend, reflecting continued concerns over growth, inflation, and fiscal dynamics, according to a survey conducted among members of CFA Society Romania at the end of November.

The index increased by 6.8 points month on month to 37.0 on a zero to 100 scale, still far below the neutral threshold of 50. The sub-index measuring current conditions stood at 42.0 points, while expectations for the next 12 months lagged behind at 34.2 points, indicating persistent pessimism about the medium-term outlook.

Survey respondents expect Romania’s economy to grow by just 0.8% in 2025, followed by a marginal acceleration to 0.9% in 2026, an outcome consistent with economic activity remaining below potential. Fiscal expectations point to gradual consolidation, with the budget deficit projected to narrow to 6.7% of gross domestic product in 2026. At the same time, public debt is expected to rise further, reaching 61% of GDP over the next 12 months.

“According to the expectations of the participants in the CFA Romania survey, the exit from the stagflation situation will be slow,” said Adrian Codirlașu, president of the CFA Romania Association. “The Romanian economy will continue to evolve below potential, with the anticipated economic growth rate for next year still being below 1%, and, at the same time, although the disinflationary process will resume in 2026, it will be slow, and the inflation rate will remain high in the following year,” he added.

Inflation expectations eased slightly compared with the previous survey round. The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon to December 2026 declined to 6.13%, and 77% of respondents expect inflation to fall over the next year relative to current levels.

Currency expectations remain skewed towards depreciation. About 77% of participants anticipate a weaker leu over the next 12 months. The average expected exchange rate is 5.1313 lei per euro over a six-month horizon and 5.1733 lei per euro over 12 months, underscoring continued pressure on the local currency.

(Photo: Ruletkka/ Dreamstime)

iulian@romania-insider.com