The current conditions component of Romania's CFA Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by the CFA Society following a survey among its members on a monthly basis plunged by 10.6 points to 31.8 points on a 0100 scale in December – the lowest level in years. The plunge was prompted by the weak retail sales readings in October-November, according to the association's press release.

The current conditions component of the CFA-compiled index has been on a downward trend over the past years, and its dropping below the expectations component for the first time indicates an imminent bottom-out point. 

The expectations component increased by 4.4 points in December compared to November, to 38.6 points – nearly 7 points above the current conditions component. The CFA press release associated this improvement in analysts' expectations with the budgetary measures implemented by the government. The analysts expect the budget deficit at 7.0% of GDP this year, down from 7.7% of GDP in 2025.

As regards the economic growth, the survey reveals expectations for moderate growth of 0.8%-0.9% for both 2025 and 2026, in line with the performance in 2024.

Over nine in ten analysts (91%) expect no sovereign rating downgrade over the next 12 months – but there still exist analysts considering a negative scenario.

Answering a new section introduced in the survey, CFA analysts see Romania's euro adoption likely in 13 years – a more remote time perspective compared to the 11 years indicated in 2024.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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