The deficit of Romania’s trade in goods contracted by 15% y/y to EUR 2.33 billion in January, as the imports (-7.7% y/y) keep decreasing faster than exports (-4.7% y/y), according to data published by the statistics office INS. For nine consecutive months, Romania’s exports performed comparatively better than its imports, resulting in a gradual narrowing of the trade deficit – still a significant 8.7% of GDP in 2025 after peaking at 9.9% in April 2025.  

The rolling trade deficit in 12 months to January decreased by 5.5% y/y to EUR 32.32 billion and must have inched down from 8.7% of GDP calculated in December – which was the lowest value since April 2021.

The trade deficit narrowing, already exceeding the official expectations at the end of 2025, is likely to continue under the pressure of subdued domestic demand for consumption and hopefully industrial stabilisation (or even moderate recovery) – but the higher oil and gas prices may have an opposite impact. 

Romania’s exports dropped by 4.7% y/y to EUR 6.9 billion in January, bringing the rolling export value in 12 months to January at EUR 96.3 billion – 3.7% up y/y.

The 12-month export to GDP ratio must have declined from 25.5% calculated in December, showing a modest foreign trade activity. The ratio was not much different, 25.7%, calculated at the end of 2024. The ratio stood at 25.7% at the end of 2024. Over the past decade, the highest performance was nearly 33% in 2022 - when the commodity prices were comparatively very high.

Romania’s imports contracted by 7.7% y/y to EUR 9.23 billion in January, when it posted the most abrupt annual decline since September 2023. The rolling imports in 12 months to January increased by 1.2% y/y to EUR 128.6 billion.

The 12-month import-to-GDP ratio must have declined from 34.2% calculated in December. The ratio was 35.7% one year earlier, as of the end of 2024. Toward the end of 2022, the ratio peaked close to 45%.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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