The retail sales volume in Romania dropped by 9.1% y/y in January, according to the statistics office INS. The first high energy bills received in this season, the wages rising significantly slower than prices for two consecutive quarters last year, and the gloomy outlook for a broad category of households (retired persons, public sector employees) eroded the propensity for consumption, and the first restrictions were in the non-essential segments. 

In 2025, the sales edged up a mere 0.2% y/y on average, with the annual growth rate entering the negative area in Q4 (-3.3% y/y).

The decline in sales was driven in January by households restricting non-essential purchases of non-food goods and car fuels, while the less volatile food sales have remained on a mild negative trend, where they have been for a year and a half. 

In seasonally and workday adjusted terms, the retail sales dropped by 3.7% m/m – a plunge of a magnitude close to the 4.0% m/m drop in consumption prompted by the VAT rate hike last August (when households supposedly carried out procurements in advance). Monthly data confirm the concentration of spending restrictions in the segments of non-food goods and car fuels.

Seasonally and workday adjusted sales in January were still 10% above the 2021 average and superior to the sales in any months until January 2024 – when something unexpected and nearly unexplainable happened: the non-food sales rose by 8.6% m/m with no particular reason and not as part of a highly volatile episode further reversed. On the contrary, the non-food sales further advanced through 2024 at a fast pace to moderate slightly through 2025 and plunge in January 2026.

The sales of non-food goods contracted by 11.3% y/y (-5.5% m/m) in January, remaining still more than 18% above the average 2021 monthly level (seasonally adjusted terms). 

The sales of food are more stable and decreased by only 4.0% y/y (-0.1% m/m) in January, remaining still nearly 5% above the average 2021 level. The food sales in Romania were significantly hit by the VAT rate last August when they saw a permanent 3.7% m/m contraction to later remain inferior to any monthly reading in 2023-2025. While the sales in every category dropped last August, the sales of non-food goods and car fuels have partly recovered later.

The sales of car fuels declined by 13.8% y/y (-5.8% m/m) in January, but they were still 7.7% above the average 2021 level. 

iulian@romania-insider.com

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