The macroeconomic confidence indicator compiled by the CFA Romania Society association improved to 48.4 points, advancing closer towards the 50-point neutral point, from 46.8 in January and 36.4 in December, and reaching the highest level since July 2024 before the presidential elections.

The sharp improvement over the past couple of months was driven by the expectations component, which entered the positive territory (51.2, from 38.6 in December) for the first time since early 2024, before the complicated electoral year that generated political turmoil and a huge budget deficit that undermined the public finances.

However, the survey underlying the data was carried out before the Middle East crisis. Even if the March CFA indicator readings will probably reflect the improved domestic stability following the 2026 budget approval in Parliament (with a positive impact on the current conditions), the external circumstances will probably have a negative impact on the expectations component. Analysts are revising their inflation projections upward, maintained at 5.85% (expected for the future 12 months) under the February round of the CFA survey at the same level as in January and down from 6.65% in January. 

The expectations for the budget deficit improved to 6.1% of GDP under the February CFA survey, down from 6.6% in January and 7% in December. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 62% in the next 12 months.

The expectations for this year’s economic growth deteriorated to 0.9%, from 1.1% expected in January. 

The current conditions component of the CFA macroeconomic confidence indicator deteriorated to 42.8 in February, from 43.1 in January, but is well above the 31.8, the past year’s lowest level, marked in December 2025.

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 81% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, and 19% a stagnation. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.1280 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated EUR/RON exchange rate is RON 5.1642 per EUR.

The survey is conducted in the last week of each month, and the participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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