The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised upward its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 5.5%, from a previous estimate of 3.9%, according to data presented on Tuesday, May 19, by central bank governor Mugur Isărescu. The institution expects inflation to ease to 2.9% by the end of 2027.

Speaking during a press conference presenting the latest quarterly inflation report, Isărescu said the revised forecast reflects growing inflationary pressures both in Romania and internationally.

The BNR governor pointed to weaker economic growth forecasts across the European Union and rising inflation expectations in Europe, the United States, and the United Kingdom, mentioning the impact of tensions in the Middle East on global prices.

“So the impact of Hormuz-related inflation is quite significant. This is our revised forecast, discussed during several meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee. We have slight inflationary pressures, which have intensified. We were even hesitant to include this in our statement a few days ago, but we are telling the truth. The idea that the National Bank is forecasting rising inflation was amplified when, in fact, the following sentence was clear: inflation is falling by half, from nearly 11% to around 5%,” Mugur Isǎrescu said, as reported by Agerpres.

“The fact that it will increase in May and June by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points was amplified at the societal level. It will rise until around July, probably up to 11%, but the increases are small, because then in July, August, and September we will already have inflation of around 6%, and toward the end of the year, a little over 5%,” he further explained.

Isărescu also stressed that the projections are based on current data and depend heavily on geopolitical developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, as well as on the restoration of political stability in Romania and the formation of a functioning government.

“It is possible that inflation will also increase in Europe. Perhaps this autumn we will no longer be inflation champions. We hope so, but it does not depend only on us,” he said.

Romania’s annual inflation rate climbed to 10.7% in April 2026, marking a sharp increase after eight consecutive months with price growth above 9%. Electricity, fuel, and rent prices recorded some of the steepest increases.

irina.marica@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Inquam Photos/George Calin)