Record public investments amounting to about 8% of GDP in 2026 could offset the negative fiscal impulse generated by consolidation measures and support a firmer economic expansion next year, Daniel Dăianu, President of the Fiscal Council, told Ziarul Financiar on November 13. Romania anticipates economic growth of under 1% in 2025.

Dăianu said the unusually high investment level, achievable if available funds under the EU Resilience Facility are fully absorbed, would represent a temporary but significant boost for the economy. 

“These public investments, around 8% of GDP in 2026, are a kind of one-off for Romania. They will reach a peak in 2026,” he said. “If these public investments, as a driving force of the economy, will counterbalance the negative momentum of reducing the budget deficit, we will be able to have a better figure in 2026 than this year in terms of economic growth.”

The Fiscal Council head noted that the global backdrop remains fragile, marked by heightened geopolitical tensions and a world economy leaning towards contraction rather than expansion. Under such conditions, the surge in EU-funded investments could become the main domestic driver of growth in 2026.

Romania’s investment plans for next year are anchored in large-scale infrastructure projects financed through European mechanisms, particularly the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. Economists have argued that the country’s historically low investment absorption rates remain a key risk, although recent improvements have raised expectations for 2026.

Dăianu warned, however, that the economy will face a shock once this exceptional funding wave subsides after 2026. With EU inflows set to decline, the responsibility for sustaining growth will shift increasingly to the private sector. He stressed that companies will require predictability, adequate financial resources, and strengthened geopolitical stability to expand investment.

“The disappearance of this wave of European financing means the burden of economic growth shifts to the shoulders of the private sector,” he said. “The private sector, however, needs predictability, resources, and especially geopolitical stability to make investments.”

iulian@romania-insider.com

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