The local financial analysts' sentiment, particularly their expectations, deteriorated in June after significant recovery seen in April-May, according to the monthly poll of the CFA Romania association quoted by Ziarul Financiar.

In the two months after the coronavirus outbreak in Romania (April-May), the analysts' sentiment recovered half of the massive plunge seen in March. Still, the long-term developments depend on how the health crisis is settled, CFA Romania head Adrian Codirlasu pointed out in June.

As the coronavirus epidemic figures have deteriorated significantly to reach new negative records, the confidence indices also declined.

The Current Conditions Indicator increased compared to the previous month by 2.7 points, to the value of 22.1 points (compared to the same month of last year, the Current Conditions Indicator decreased by 38.4 points).

Meanwhile, the Anticipation Indicator decreased by 4.2 points in June to 40.1 points (compared to the same month of 2019, the Anticipation Indicator decreased by 5.9 points). CFA analysts also expect the budget deficit to hit 8.4% of GDP this year (compared to the Government's target of 6.7%) and the GDP to contract by 4.4% versus the 1.9% decline expected by the authorities.

The CFA analysts further lowered their GDP projection from -4.0% in May. According to the same poll, the unemployment rate will rise to 7.3% by the end of the year.

The CFA analysts also expect a depreciation of the exchange rate to RON 4.96 per EUR within 12 months, and an annual inflation rate of 2.33% in December.

(Photo: Aleksandr Zubkov/ Dreamstime)

editor@romania-insider.com