Erste revises up economic growth forecast for Romania to 5.1%


Austrian group Erste, the owner of Romania’s biggest bank – BCR, has significantly improved its estimates for Romania’s economic growth in 2017 and 2018.

Erste Group analysts expect Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 5.1% this year compared to 2016. For next year, they forecast a 3.9% economic growth.

Erste’s previous estimates on Romania’s economic increase were 4.3% for 2017 and 2.8% for 2018.

The Austrian group’s analysts expect consumption to be the main engine for Romania’s economic growth but see contributions from other sectors as well, such as industry.

Erste revised its forecast for Romania’s economic growth after the National Statistics Institute (INS) cinfirmed the 5.7% GDP growth in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period of 2016. Industry, trade and IT were the main contributors to this growth rate, the highest in the European Union.

Erste analysts also mentioned in their report that the Government’s fiscal relaxation policy and the demand from the Eurozone have fueled the local economy’s growth. They also point out to the risk of a slowdown next year as the fiscal policy will start to lose traction.

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