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Andrei Chirileasa
Editor-in-Chief

Andrei studied finance at the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies and started his journalism career in 2004 with Ziarul Financiar, the leading financial newspaper in Romania, where he worked for ten years, the last six of which as editor of the capital markets section. He joined the Romania-Insider.com team in 2014 as editor and became Editor-in-Chief in 2016. He currently oversees the daily content published on Romania-Insider.com and likes to stay up to date with everything relevant in business, politics, and life in Romania. Andrei lives with his family in the countryside in Northern Romania, where he built their own house. In his free time, he studies horticulture and tends to his family’s garden. He enjoys foraging in the woods and long walks on the hills and valleys around his village. Email him for story ideas and interviews at andrei@romania-insider.com. 

 

Romania's central bank expects inflation to peak at 8.6% in June

The annual inflation rate is likely to increase gradually in the coming months, according to the January 10 monetary board minute of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), which estimates a peak inflation rate of 8.6% in June 2022, followed by a decrease of the headline inflation to 5.9% in December 2022 and 3.3% in September 2023.

At the board meeting, BNR hiked the refinancing rate by 25bp to 2%, widening the interest rate corridor by another 25bp to 1%, in a move that disappointed half of the analysts who anticipated (and found as appropriate) a much hawkish approach.

The renewed worsening of the short-term inflation outlook was fully ascribable to the direct and indirect effects – both recent and future – of adverse supply-side shocks affecting in the period ahead both the evolution of exogenous CPI components and core inflation dynamics, Board members repeatedly underlined.

However, elevated uncertainties still lingered over the effects of temporary schemes to compensate and cap the hikes in energy prices, as well as over how they would be assessed and included in the CPI calculation. At the same time, the overall balance of supply-side risks to the inflation outlook remained tilted slightly to the upside in the short run, Board members concluded.

Nevertheless, a downward correction of energy commodity prices in the latter part of 2022 and a more obvious improvement in global production and supply chains, currently at an early stage, could not be ruled out.

andrei@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Cagkan Sayin/Dreamstime.com)

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Profile picture for user andreich
Andrei Chirileasa
Editor-in-Chief

Andrei studied finance at the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies and started his journalism career in 2004 with Ziarul Financiar, the leading financial newspaper in Romania, where he worked for ten years, the last six of which as editor of the capital markets section. He joined the Romania-Insider.com team in 2014 as editor and became Editor-in-Chief in 2016. He currently oversees the daily content published on Romania-Insider.com and likes to stay up to date with everything relevant in business, politics, and life in Romania. Andrei lives with his family in the countryside in Northern Romania, where he built their own house. In his free time, he studies horticulture and tends to his family’s garden. He enjoys foraging in the woods and long walks on the hills and valleys around his village. Email him for story ideas and interviews at andrei@romania-insider.com. 

 

Romania's central bank expects inflation to peak at 8.6% in June

The annual inflation rate is likely to increase gradually in the coming months, according to the January 10 monetary board minute of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), which estimates a peak inflation rate of 8.6% in June 2022, followed by a decrease of the headline inflation to 5.9% in December 2022 and 3.3% in September 2023.

At the board meeting, BNR hiked the refinancing rate by 25bp to 2%, widening the interest rate corridor by another 25bp to 1%, in a move that disappointed half of the analysts who anticipated (and found as appropriate) a much hawkish approach.

The renewed worsening of the short-term inflation outlook was fully ascribable to the direct and indirect effects – both recent and future – of adverse supply-side shocks affecting in the period ahead both the evolution of exogenous CPI components and core inflation dynamics, Board members repeatedly underlined.

However, elevated uncertainties still lingered over the effects of temporary schemes to compensate and cap the hikes in energy prices, as well as over how they would be assessed and included in the CPI calculation. At the same time, the overall balance of supply-side risks to the inflation outlook remained tilted slightly to the upside in the short run, Board members concluded.

Nevertheless, a downward correction of energy commodity prices in the latter part of 2022 and a more obvious improvement in global production and supply chains, currently at an early stage, could not be ruled out.

andrei@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Cagkan Sayin/Dreamstime.com)

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