The retail sales volume in Romania failed to substantially rebound in February 2026, after a visible slowdown in January, marking a second downward step-like correction after the VAT rate hike in August last year. 

The retail sales volume contracted by 6.8% y/y  in February and by 7.6% y/y in January-February, according to the data published by the statistics office INS. While the food sales decreased moderately by 0.5% y/y in February and 2.3% y/y in January-February, a much steeper annual decline was in the non-food goods sector: 10.1% y/y in February and 10.3% y/y in January-February. The car fuel sales dropped by around 10% y/y in each of the first two months of the year.

The seasonally-adjusted data reveal an insignificant 0.2% m/m recovery in the overall retail sales index in February after the 3.2% m/m drop in January. 

Overall, the seasonally-adjusted index dropped by 2.7% in January-February compared to the average level in Q4 last year. This prepares the ground for a significant q/q decline in Q1, after 1.4% q/q and 2.7% q/q contraction in Q4 and Q3, respectively, last year. 

The decline in Jan-Feb was particularly driven by the non-food sales (-5.8% versus 1.% advance of food sales) after the sales’ decline had been predominantly driven by the food sales during H2 last year. 

Erste Group forecasts a slight acceleration of +0.5% in Romania’s retail sales growth in 2026 compared to +0.2% in 2025. Private consumption is likely to remain subdued as real wage growth is expected to remain negative in the first half of 2026. There is the concern that the increase in oil prices, due to the Iran war, whose impact hasn't been reflected yet in the retail sales data, could derail spending in March. Regardless, the analysts of the Austrian financial group see some improvement in the second half as inflation is expected to cool off, which could bring some growth momentum for the retail sales.

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iulian@romania-insider.com