Erste sees Romania’s GDP growing by over 4% in 2021-2022
Austrian financial group Erste Group Bank estimates that Romania will record economic growth of 4.2% this year and 4.5% in 2022.
Still, the speed and scale of the vaccination process remain the most important factors for the economic recovery of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region in which the banking group operates.
Another key factor for this is the efficient use of grants from the European Union Relaunch and Resilience Fund (RRF).
Based on Erste's forecast, quoted by Agerpres, the convergence to the euro area region will pause in Romania, or slow down close to a standstill, at least this year.
In this context, Erste estimates GDP growth rates in CEE in 2021 to range between +3% to +5%.
"For some economies in the region, the GDP growth forecasts for 2021 have been slightly revised downwards. However, the growth scenario for 2021 in most Erste Group markets is generally above the average of +4.0% estimated for the euro area as a whole. In 2021, the GDP is expected to grow sharper in Croatia (+4.5%) and Serbia (+5.0%), while the economies of Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia are expected to rise by more than 4%, followed by the Czech Republic and Austria, with estimated increases of 3.3% and 2.8%, respectively."
According to Erste analysts, industrial production and GDP growth would return to normal in the second half of the year.