With five days remaining until the second round of Romania's presidential elections on Sunday, May 18, the race between far-right leader George Simion and independent candidate Nicușor Dan is extremely close, according to an AtlasIntel opinion poll conducted for Hotnews.ro. The survey shows both candidates tied, each with 48.2% of the vote in the lead-up to the second presidential vote.

The AtlasIntel poll was conducted between May 9 and May 12, 2025, with a sample of 3,995 respondents, and a margin of error of ±2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The opinion poll reveals that 1% of respondents plan to annul their vote, while another 2.6% remain undecided. 

As for the redistribution of votes from candidates who participated in the first round, the majority of votes for Crin Antonescu, the candidate backed by PSD-PNL-UDMR, would go to Nicușor Dan, with 91.7% of his voters choosing Dan. Only 6.2% would back Simion.

In a similar trend, 96.7% of voters who supported USR's Elena Lasconi would shift their vote to Nicușor Dan, while just 2.5% would choose George Simion. 

Among former prime minister Victor Ponta's supporters, who also campaigned on a platform of "sovereignty," 69.3% would back Nicușor Dan, while 22.6% would vote for George Simion.

For Daniel Funeriu's small voter base, 47.3% of his votes would go to Dan, and 52.7% would go to George Simion. However, Funeriu's support was minimal, with just 0.34% of the vote in the first round.

irina.marica@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Inquam Photos/Malina Norocea, Sabin Cirstoveanu)