Romania’s industrial output down 3.0% y/y in April despite 1.9% recovery in two months
Romania's industrial output posted a 3.0% y/y decline in April, after the average 1.9% y/y contraction in Q1, according to data published by the statistics office INS. The outlook remains mixed, allowing expectations for positive growth in the full year.
The decline was more visible in the core manufacturing sector, where the output contracted by 4.0% y/y after a -3.4% y/y decline in Q1. The sector of utilities is performing better, the production and delivery of energy and natural gas mainly expanding by 3.3% y/y in April and 6.5% y/y in Q1.
Historically, however, the sector of utilities is in a recovering mode, and the rise reflects low base effects: the sector’s seasonally adjusted activity in April was only 84.8% of the average in 2021 – compared to 97.5% for the manufacturing sector. The seasonally-adjusted output in the mining sector was, in April, 96.2% of the average 2021 – after 0.9% y/y decline.
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the industrial output rose by 1.5% m/m in April, driven by the resumption of activity in Petromidia refinery, after 0.4% m/m advance in March. This comes after a 0.4% m/m advance in March, resulting in a 1.9% recovery from the weakest post-COVID industrial performance posted by Romania in February (measured by the seasonally-adjusted output).
The industrial sector’s outlook remains complicated. While Erste Group analysts still expect a slight recovery this year, after three years of contraction. “Early-year developments indicate that downside risks have increased, but the trend in the last two months looks promising,” a research note by the Austrian group reads.
The 12-month rolling industrial output already posted a modest positive performance of +0.2% y/y for the first time since December 2022 – but remained negative (-0.3% y/y) in the core manufacturing sector.
The state forecasting body CNP, under its May forecast update, said industrial output would still contract by 0.5% y/y in 2026, after 1.7% y/y recovery in 2027.
iulian@romania-insider.com
(Photo source: Andrii Yalanskyi/Dreamstime.com)
