Romania will likely face a deeper recession than currently anticipated as part of an unavoidable economic adjustment process aimed at correcting the country’s fiscal and external imbalances, economic analyst Radu Crăciun said during the FIAR 2026 International Insurance and Reinsurance Forum organised by Xprimm. All that can be done is securing a soft landing without IMF intervention, he argued, as reported by Economica.net.

Crăciun, who is also a professor at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies (ASE) and former president of the Association for Private Pensions in Romania (APAPR), argued that a “soft landing” of the economy necessarily implies slower growth and contractionary effects.

“An idea is being circulated that we should stimulate the economy. I would like to point out that we have been stimulating it for several years, and in vain. The problem is not stimulating the economy, because a soft landing is about going down. This evolution was inevitable,” Crăciun said.

According to the analyst, the downturn will deepen partly because the National Bank of Romania (BNR) is preventing a sharper depreciation of the leu through market interventions and by maintaining relatively high interest rates.

Crăciun argued that additional fiscal or monetary stimulus, such as increased public spending or lower interest rates, would risk aggravating macroeconomic imbalances rather than supporting a sustainable recovery.

He also warned that Romania may ultimately require assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if the political class fails to implement the necessary adjustment measures.

“We must note that never in the history of Romania has a correction been made without the IMF. We are now trying to achieve the landing without the IMF. Thus, there is no longer the scapegoat called the IMF, and this correction will have to be assumed by the political class,” Crăciun said.

“I would not bet that they will succeed. I do not rule out seeing the IMF back, if there is no courage to take measures,” he added.

Romania is currently undergoing a multi-year fiscal consolidation process aimed at reducing one of the largest budget deficits in the European Union, amid weak economic growth, elevated inflation, and persistent political uncertainty.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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