Banca Transilvania projects robust growth and shrinking twins deficits for Romania
Romania’s economy may rise by 3.8% this year, by 4.1% in 2023 and by 4.9% in 2024, according to the revised forecast drafted by Banca Transilvania (BT) after including the detailed Q1 GDP data in the model.
The forecast is particularly encouraging not only in terms of economic growth but also in regard to the shrinking twin deficits and the exchange rate.
Thus, BT expects the current account (CA) deficit to shrink from 7% of GDP in 2021 to 5.1% of GDP this year and 3.6% of GDP in 2024, Ziarul Financiar reported.
BT trusts the Government will meet the fiscal consolidation target and bring the public deficit down to 2.5% of GDP in 2024 (under ESA) from 7.1% of GDP last year and an expected level of 6.3% of GDP this year.
Banca Transilvania also expects the central bank will keep the exchange rate steady at an average level of 4.96 RON to EUR this year and 5.06 RON to EUR in the last year of the forecast period (2024).
(Photo source: Banca Transilvania)