Romania’s trade deficit in the 12 months to April contracted by 10.6% y/y to EUR 31.9 billion, according to data published by the statistics office INS. The deficit-to-GDP ratio reached 8.3%, subject to a slight downward adjustment after the Q2 GDP release, from 9.9% in April 2025. 

On the downside, the trade balance improvement, however, occurred amid lower foreign trade activity measured as a ratio to total GDP, on both the export and import sides.

The improvement in the country’s trade balance, driven by subdued domestic demand (particularly for consumption), is expected to continue.

The state forecasting body CNP expects the trade deficit to further ease to EUR 31.7 billion this year, from EUR 32.8 billion in 2025, before resuming nominal growth. Subsequently, the current account measured as a ratio of GDP would improve to 6.7% this year, from 7.9% in 2025. The external deficit would further contract to 6% of GDP in 2029, paralleling the fiscal consolidation and consolidating the macroeconomic stability.

In the short term, the pace of trade deficit contraction has slowed down recently, to 2% y/y in April. In March, the trade deficit actually increased in annual terms. 

The pause in the trade deficit contraction is caused by the trade in petroleum products and natural gas, which weakened in recent months amid higher energy prices. For January-April, the import of mineral fuels increased by 8.2% y/y to nearly EUR 3.5 billion, while the exports expanded by only 6.2% y/y, remaining below EUR 2 billion.

In April, Romania’s exports increased faster than imports, by 4.3% y/y to EUR 8.2 billion. The rolling 12-month exports increased by 4.7% y/y to EUR 97.2 billion. The export-to-GDP ratio decreased slightly to around 25.3% from nearly 26% a year ago.

The imports increased by only 2.5% y/y in April, to EUR 11.3 billion. The 12-month imports edged up by only 0.4% y/y to EUR 129.1 billion. The import-to-GDP ratio also decreased, to under 32% in 12 months to April, from above 35% a year ago.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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