Romania’s retail sales posted a 5.4% y/y contraction in April, after they dropped by 5.9% y/y in Q1, according to data published by the statistics office INS. The seasonally-adjusted sales returned to the weak readings in January-February after a brief improvement in March, along a downward trend driven by the shrinking household incomes but also by fragile consumer confidence.

Private consumption thus returned to more sustainable levels, after steep expansion (+8.6%) in 2024, followed by a modest 0.2% advance in 2025.

The real wages were severely hit by the high inflation contracted by around 5% y/y for the second consecutive quarter in Q1, after a milder 4% y/y contraction in Q3 last year – when the inflation surged following the VAT rate hike and the liberalisation of the electricity prices.

Consequently, the retail sales adjusted downward gradually, with a first decline seen during Q3 in response to the inflationary shock, followed by another downward correction at the beginning of the year. 

The outlook remains bleak on the labour market, with an expected negative impact on private consumption – which would impact for the first time in past years the overall economic growth. Despite investments supported by EU funds, Romania’s economy is expected to increase only marginally, if at all, this year.

The sales in each of the three main categories have been on a downward trend for the past year. Food and non-food sales contracted by 6.7% y/y and 6.3% y/y respectively, while the sales of car fuels marked a milder -0.7% y/y contraction in line with its more stable dynamics. 

However, while the non-food sales were still 16.0% above the average 2021 level (in seasonally and workday adjusted terms) in April, the food sales have advanced by only 3.3% against the same 2021 base year. The sales of fuels were 6.4% above the average 2021 level at the same time. 

For comparison, Romania’s seasonally adjusted GDP was 6.7% above the average 2021 level in Q1 2026 (latest data available). Overall, retail sales were still 9.6% above the average 2021 level in April 2026.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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