Romanian analysts’ sentiment still down despite August rise
The latest poll carried by the CFA Romania association in late August, quoted by Agerpres, indicates that the analysts' evaluation of the current economic conditions and their expectations were rising compared to the previous month, yet remaining at low levels.
The latest political developments with an impact on the country's budget and the deterioration of the sanitary outlook might have dented their sentiment again in September.
The current conditions sub-indicator improved by 2.6 points but remains at a still low value of 22.5 points in August (-39.2 points year-on-year).
Meanwhile, the expectations sub-indicator improved by 3.2 points to 38.7 points, 5.4 points more than a year ago, but at this value, it signifies analysts' expectations for the recovery to balanced economic conditions at a future moment in the one-year forecast period.
And indeed, their forecast for this year's GDP decline deteriorated from 4.4% in July to 4.7% in August.
They keep expecting an 8.3%-of-GDP budget deficit in the year and a 7% unemployment rate at the end of the year.
The recovery will be slow after the most challenging part of the crisis is overcome, analysts say.
They were also expecting a more stable exchange rate over the next 6-month period than the previous month (RON 4.8886 to EUR versus RON 4.9022 in July). Still, their expectations must have changed significantly during the past week when the local currency entered a visible weakening trend.
(Photo: Diony Teixeira/ Dreamstime)