The trade deficit in Romania widened by 38% YoY in October to a new record of EUR 3.4 bln, according to data from the statistics office INS. The exports increased by 22% YoY to nearly EUR 8.0 bln, while the imports surged by 26% YoY to EUR 11.4 bln.

The deficit in the rolling 12 months to October reached EUR 32.9 bln, 44.5% more compared to October 2021.

The latest scenario published by the state forecasting body envisages further widening of the trade gap to EUR 35.2 bln in 2022, followed by a milder 18% YoY deepening of the deficit in 2023.

The trade deficit with goods has fluctuated between 11% and 12% of GDP in each of the three quarters this year, illustrating structural issues.

The deficit-to-GDP ratio has constantly widened over the past decade at a rate similar to that seen before the 2008-2009 crisis, but in absolute terms, it is still far from the 15%-20% levels reached at that time. Furthermore, the trade deficit this time is supposed to be financed (and partly caused) by the significant inflows under the Recovery and Resilience Facility.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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