The EUR/RON exchange rate, one of the extremely sensitive indicators of business dynamics, could exceed the level of RON 4.81-4.83 to EUR in the first half of 2020 and RON 4.84-4.86 to EUR in the second part of the year, in line with the internal economic evolution and the international situation, according to an analysis by currency exchange and international payments company Moneycorp Romania, quoted by Agerpres.
The 0.8% and 1.6% depreciation over the next six and respectively 12 months is rather moderate given the size of Romania’s external deficits (the current account gap is likely to hover around 5% of GDP over the coming years).
The uncertainties related to this scenario is, however, rather high as the analysts point to the absence of any official projection for the budget planning and economic growth next year.
The Moneycorp experts believe that Romania undergoes a period of high sensitivity, particularly because it is going through a period full of challenges on the public stage (change of government, presidential elections).
They project 3.6% GDP growth, 5.3% current account deficit and a public budget deficit of nearly 4% of GDP for next year.
"The negative figures released so far - budgetary revenues well below target, hence wider budget deficit projected to surpass 3% of GDP by the end of the year, the increase of the public debt by EUR 9.1 billion, in the first 8 months of the year, to EUR 109 bln and the absence of official forecasts for the 2020 outlook - all these generate unpredictability at a time when companies draft their budgets for the following year,” explains Claudiu Ghebaru, Senior Dealer Moneycorp Romania.
Romania’s currency (RON) has weakened for the fourth day in a row, by 0.07%, on November 21, and reached an overall...