The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association fell significantly, by 7.7 points, in May, reaching a value of 30.5 points, below the neutral 50-point benchmark. The current conditions indicator decreased by 9.3 points to 23.4 points, while the expectations indicator declined by 6.8 points, reaching 34 points.

“Amid risk aversion, driven by both external and internal factors, confidence in the economy has declined significantly. At the same time, in the context of the RON depreciation episode, the expectations regarding the future evolution of the exchange rate have also been adjusted. Furthermore, consistent with the evolution of confidence in the economy, the expectations for economic growth for the current year have recorded significant declines, already indicating a high risk of recession,” Adrian Codirlașu, the president of the CFA Romania Association, said, quoted by Forbes.ro.

The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (June 2027) increased slightly compared to the previous survey, reaching 7.53%. A total of 80% of the participants expect inflation to decrease over the next 12 months compared to its current level, while 20% expect it to increase.

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 71% of participants expect the national currency to depreciate over the next 12 months, while 29% expect it to stagnate. The average expectations regarding the exchange rate over the six-month horizon stand at RON 5.2857 per euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average exchange rate is expected to reach RON 5.3521 per euro.

The economic growth expectations for 2026 declined substantially, reaching an average value of -0.1%, indicating a high risk of recession.
Public debt, measured as a percentage of GDP, is expected to increase to 61% over the next 12 months.

The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for more than 14 years. It is an indicator through which the organization aims to quantify the financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania over a one-year time horizon.

The survey is carried out in the last week of each month. The participants are members of the CFA Romania Association, as well as candidates for Levels II and III of the CFA exams.

simona@romania-insider.com

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