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Iulian Ernst
Senior Editor

Iulian studied physics at the University of Bucharest, and he sees himself as a physicist in the broadest sense of the word. He also studied economics at Charles University in Prague and Central European University in Budapest, after a master’s program in business administration at Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies. Since recently, he’s been exploring coding and data analysis for business and economics. As a freelancer, he worked for nearly two decades as an analyst for ISI Emerging Markets, Euromonitor International, Business New Europe, but also as a consultant for OMV Petrom and UkrAgroConsult. Iulian was part of the founding team of Ziarul Financiar. At Romania Insider, which he joined in 2018, he is reviewing the latest economic developments for the premium bulletins and newsletters. He would gladly discuss topics such as macroeconomics, emerging markets, Prague, energy sector including renewable, Led Zeppelin, financial services, as well as tech start-ups and innovative technologies. Email him at [email protected] 

 

RO state forecasting body projects 4.5% GDP growth next year

Romania's National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNP), under its latest forecast issued on November 18, projects a robust 4.5% GDP growth next year that would fully offset the 4.2% decline this year.

In absolute values, Romania's GDP will hit RON 1.14 billion (EUR 232 bln) next year, up from RON 1.05 bln (EUR 217 bln) this year.

The average consumer price inflation should ease to 2.3% next year from 2.7% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2019 - although the GDP deflator is expected to stay flat at 3.4% in 2020-2021.

The CNP expects private consumption to recover from the real 3.7% contraction this year to a robust 4.6% advance next year, on assumptions that the real wages will rise by another 4.4% in 2021 after the significant 4.0% advance this year while the employment will rebound by 1.7% after the slight 1.4% contraction in 2020.

CNP also shows optimism when estimating an average exchange rate of RON 4.9 to EUR next year, only slightly up from RON 4.84 to EUR in 2020.

The demand-driven recovery will further push up the trade deficit, seen as expanding by more than 10% in 2021 to over EUR 21.3 bln or 9.2% of GDP, from 7.7% of GDP in 2019.

The EU funds are probably behind the more optimistic projection for the current account gap seen by CNP at 4.5% of GDP next year, down from 4.6% of GDP this year and 4.7% of GDP in 2019. 

(Photo: Shutterstock)

[email protected]

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Profile picture for user iuliane
Iulian Ernst
Senior Editor

Iulian studied physics at the University of Bucharest, and he sees himself as a physicist in the broadest sense of the word. He also studied economics at Charles University in Prague and Central European University in Budapest, after a master’s program in business administration at Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies. Since recently, he’s been exploring coding and data analysis for business and economics. As a freelancer, he worked for nearly two decades as an analyst for ISI Emerging Markets, Euromonitor International, Business New Europe, but also as a consultant for OMV Petrom and UkrAgroConsult. Iulian was part of the founding team of Ziarul Financiar. At Romania Insider, which he joined in 2018, he is reviewing the latest economic developments for the premium bulletins and newsletters. He would gladly discuss topics such as macroeconomics, emerging markets, Prague, energy sector including renewable, Led Zeppelin, financial services, as well as tech start-ups and innovative technologies. Email him at [email protected] 

 

RO state forecasting body projects 4.5% GDP growth next year

Romania's National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNP), under its latest forecast issued on November 18, projects a robust 4.5% GDP growth next year that would fully offset the 4.2% decline this year.

In absolute values, Romania's GDP will hit RON 1.14 billion (EUR 232 bln) next year, up from RON 1.05 bln (EUR 217 bln) this year.

The average consumer price inflation should ease to 2.3% next year from 2.7% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2019 - although the GDP deflator is expected to stay flat at 3.4% in 2020-2021.

The CNP expects private consumption to recover from the real 3.7% contraction this year to a robust 4.6% advance next year, on assumptions that the real wages will rise by another 4.4% in 2021 after the significant 4.0% advance this year while the employment will rebound by 1.7% after the slight 1.4% contraction in 2020.

CNP also shows optimism when estimating an average exchange rate of RON 4.9 to EUR next year, only slightly up from RON 4.84 to EUR in 2020.

The demand-driven recovery will further push up the trade deficit, seen as expanding by more than 10% in 2021 to over EUR 21.3 bln or 9.2% of GDP, from 7.7% of GDP in 2019.

The EU funds are probably behind the more optimistic projection for the current account gap seen by CNP at 4.5% of GDP next year, down from 4.6% of GDP this year and 4.7% of GDP in 2019. 

(Photo: Shutterstock)

[email protected]

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