Romania's gross domestic product (GDP) remained largely unchanged in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published on May 15 by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). The economy recorded a growth of 0.2% in gross series and 0.5% in seasonally adjusted series compared to the same quarter of 2024. 

INS specifies that the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series was recalculated following the inclusion of estimates for Q1 2025, with differences recorded compared to the version published on April 10, 2025. The seasonally adjusted series was recalculated by including the GDP estimate for Q1 2025, with volume indices revised compared to the second provisional version published on April 10, 2025. 

Romania’s 2025 budget is based on an economic growth of 2.5% and a budget deficit of 7% of GDP. The stagnation, therefore, can severely impact the country’s budget. 

The Romanian economy will grow by only 1.6% in 2025, according to the latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund, which drastically revised its growth forecast from 3.3% in October.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, EBRD, also slightly downgraded its estimates regarding the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2025 to 1.6% but maintained its forecasts for 2026. 

radu@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Diony Teixeira | Dreamstime.com)