If Romania maintains the course of stabilising state finances, it can hope that this year, possibly even in the fall, the country's rating outlook will be improved from negative to stable by the major rating agencies, said finance minister Alexandru Nazare at the Economist Romania Government Roundtable 2026 conference, according to Profit.ro.

Romania expects a rating update from S&P at the end of this week. It is currently rated at the lowest investment-grade level with a negative outlook, leaving it vulnerable to a downgrade.

Nazare stated that the recent decision by the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR) to upgrade Romania's country rating outlook to stable could be followed by the other major financial rating agencies, S&P, Moody's, and Fitch this year, if Romania maintains public finance discipline.

“[JCR’s decision] shows that, if we continue on this path [of consolidating finances], we can hope that during the year, maybe in the fall, we will be able to have a similar move from the other agencies, which will certainly help us, let's say, with interest costs for 2026," the minister said.

The government's borrowing costs have increased by about one percentage point in the context of the conflict in the Middle East, after previously being reduced, minister Nazare commented, stressing that, given the circumstances, the budgetary discipline remains essential.

The yield of Romania’s 10-year local currency debt spiked to 7.4% during March 13-23 to ease just above 7.1% currently, after reaching a minimum of 6.3% just before the February 27 attacks operated by Israel and the US against Iran.

Romania has a seven-year fiscal plan underway with the European Commission, sketched at the end of 2024 and revised in July 2025, to reduce the deficit below 3% of GDP and stabilise the public debt to GDP ratio. For this year, the cash deficit target is 6.2% of GDP, in line with the commitments made to the EC and down from 765% of GDP in 2025.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Gov.ro)