A total of 27% of Romanian employers forecast an increase in payrolls in the July – September 2018 period, while only 8% anticipate a decrease, according to the recent ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey. This results in a seasonally adjusted net employment outlook of +13%, which improves by 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and remains relatively stable when compared with the July - September 2017 period.
The net employment outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from it the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease.
The most optimistic employers are found in Romania’s West region. They report an outlook of +17%, 7 percentage points stronger than in the previous quarter and 14 percentage points stronger than in Q3 of 2017. Employers in the Center region are also optimistic, reporting a +16% outlook that is 1 percentage point weaker than in Q2 of 2018, but 6 percentage points stronger year-on-year. Employers in the North-East and South regions also report quarter-on-quarter declines of 1 percentage points, reporting Q3 outlooks of +5% and +8% respectively. In the South-West perspectives are 4 percentage points weaker than in the last quarter, but the outlook is still at +8%.
When compared to last year, outlooks are weaker in four of the eight regions, most notably in the North-East region, where the +5% net employment outlook, the least optimistic in the country, is 14 percentage points weaker than in Q3 of 2017.
Employers in the manufacturing sector are the country’s most optimistic, reporting a +28% net employment outlook which improves by 2 percentage points over Q2. The most significant year-on-year decline is reported by employers in mining and quarrying where the outlook weakens by 15 percentage points compared to Q3 of 2017, and 5 percentage points over Q2 of 2018, to drop to -11%. This is the country’s least optimistic industry forecast, and one of only two negative prognoses, alongside the -4% outlook reported in agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing. Conversely, the most notable year-on-year improvement is reported in the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector, where the +15% outlook is 9 percentage points stronger than in Q3 of last year.
Organizations of all sizes offer opportunities to job seekers. The strongest hiring intentions are reported by large employers, with an outlook of +27%. The most cautious plans are forecast by employers in micro-organizations, but the +5% net employment outlook they report is the strongest in the past year, improving by 6 percentage points over both the April – June 2018 period, and Q3 of last year.
In Romania, the most recent ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey was conducted by InfoCorp Ltd., between April 18th and May 1st 2018, on a representative sample of 628 employers. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.