Romanian ruling coalition first in voting intentions for European Parliament elections, new poll shows

The ruling PSD-PNL alliance ranks first in voting intentions for the European Parliament elections, with 43.7%, followed by far-right party AUR with 17.5%, and the United Right Alliance with 14.1%, according to a poll conducted by INSCOP for News.ro.

Voting intentions for local councils indicate the following ranking: PSD - 29%, PNL - 27.6%, AUR - 14.5%, and the United Right Alliance - 12.7%.

Around 62.9% of respondents declare they will definitely vote, compared to 59.2% in April. Roughly 10.9% said they will definitely not vote.

Among mobilized voters (those who say they will definitely vote), 44.3% would choose the PSD-PNL alliance, 16.8% would choose the United Right Alliance (USR, PMP, FD), and 15.3% would vote for AUR. 5.8% of mobilized voters would vote for UDMR, and 4.7% for SOS Romania Party.

Regarding those who express a preference for a party from the list, regardless of whether they declare they will definitely vote or not (79.9% of the total sample), 29% of voters would choose PSD, 27.6% PNL, 14.5% AUR, and 12.7% the United Right Alliance (USR, PMP, Forţa Dreptei).

"In the last month, there have been no significant changes in the voting intention of Romanian residents for the European and local elections, possibly due to a very discreet electoral campaign. The May INSCOP survey reinforces the previous main conclusions: the sum of PSD and PNL votes in local elections is significantly higher than the score of the PSD-PNL electoral alliance in the European elections, which dominates the ranking. AUR has fallen below the 20% threshold, approaching 15%, the combined score of AUR and SOS Romania is around 20%, and the United Right Alliance is growing but very slowly,” said Remus Ştefureac, director of INSCOP Research.

“Election results can be influenced by possible developments in the last two weeks of the campaign, if it becomes more dynamic. An important factor will be the diaspora vote, which will influence the final scores of the parties," he added.

The opinion poll was conducted by INSCOP Research commissioned by the News.ro news agency. Data was collected between May 20 – 25, 2024, using the CATI method (telephone interviews), with a simple, stratified sample size of 1100 people, representative of the significant socio-demographic categories (gender, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania aged 18 and over.

Romania hold European and local elections on June 9.