The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by the CFA Romania Society decreased in March by 1.4 points, to 59.4 points on a 0-100 scale, with the 50-point benchmark indicating a balanced state of economy and expectations (or a balanced combination).

"Although, in the short term, due to the influx of public money, the confidence in the economy increases, for the 12-month horizon, given the macroeconomic imbalances and the high fiscal uncertainty, the expectations decreased," explained Adrian Codirlaşu, vice-president of CFA Romania Association.

The decline was due to the divergent evolution of the two components of the indicator: the current conditions improved significantly by 5.2 points to a robust 75-point position, while the expectations for a 12-month horizon deteriorated by 4.7 points to a position of 51.6 points, still in the "positive" half.

Notably, only 29% of the analysts CFA Society members surveyed expect the central bank to cut the monetary policy rate (at 7% since January 2023) in May, while 36% expect such a step only in July. 

The March survey indicates expectations for 2.7% GDP growth (2.5% in February) and a budget deficit of 5.4% of GDP (5.5% of GDP in February) this year versus 3.4% and 5.0%-of-GDP official projections. The analysts' expectations indicate significantly higher inflation over the next 12 months compared to the central bank's forecast: 5.33% compared to 3.7%.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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