The combined impact of the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing structural factors have reduced the projected pace of catch-up in per capita income growth and set back convergence by an estimated five years in Romania compared with pre-pandemic trends, according to World Bank’s EU Regular Economic Report.

For comparison, the impact was six years in Bulgaria but only three years in Poland.

In contrast, the pace of catch-up in Croatia is expected to accelerate relative to the 2000-19 average, reflecting significant public investment in earthquake reconstruction efforts.

Romania’s potential economic growth can reach 5.2% on average over the period 2022-2030, the highest of the four countries analyzed in the latest issue of the World Bank’s report.

Romania’s potential growth rate over the period may be the highest among the four countries covered by the report: Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Poland.

The potential growth is the GDP growth rate that has a neutral inflationary impact - and is not related in any way to any forecast. 

(Photo: Oleg Kachura/ Dreamstime)

andrei@romania-insider.com