Romania's CFA macro confidence indicator rebounds but remains in contraction territory
Romania's macroeconomic confidence indicator compiled by CFA Society Romania recovered in June after plunging close to the record low (29.9 points, June 2025) in May, but remained firmly in contraction territory, signalling continued recession risks, according to the association's latest monthly survey.
The indicator rose by seven points to 37.5 in June from 30.5 recorded in May, reversing almost all of the previous month's 7.7-point decline.
Despite the rebound, the reading remains well below the 50-point threshold generally associated with economic expansion.
The current conditions component increased by 5.4 points to 28.8, while the expectations component advanced by 7.8 points to 41.9.
"The confidence indicator increased in June, with both internal and external factors contributing to its evolution. On the internal side, we had a better-than-expected performance in reducing the budget deficit, and on the external side, relative calm in the Iran war. However, the confidence indicator remains at levels consistent with a recession. The same high risk of recession is also indicated by economic growth expectations for the current year," Adrian Codirlaşu, President of CFA Society Romania, said.
The survey's respondents continue to expect only 0.1% GDP growth in Romania this year, reflecting expectations of an economy close to stagnation.
Inflation expectations edged higher, with respondents forecasting average inflation of 7.63% over the next 12 months to July 2027. Around 65% of participants expect inflation to decline over the coming year, while 25% anticipate a further increase.
The survey also pointed to continued concerns over public finances. Analysts raised their forecast for Romania's 2026 general government deficit by 0.2 percentage points from the previous survey, to an average of 6.4% of GDP.
Romania's public debt is expected to continue rising, with respondents projecting the debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 63% over the next 12 months.
iulian@romania-insider.com
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