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Andrei Chirileasa
Editor-in-Chief

Andrei studied finance at the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies and started his journalism career in 2004 with Ziarul Financiar, the leading financial newspaper in Romania, where he worked for ten years, the last six of which as editor of the capital markets section. He joined the Romania-Insider.com team in 2014 as editor and became Editor-in-Chief in 2016. He currently oversees the daily content published on Romania-Insider.com and likes to stay up to date with everything relevant in business, politics, and life in Romania. Andrei lives with his family in the countryside in Northern Romania, where he built their own house. In his free time, he studies horticulture and tends to his family’s garden. He enjoys foraging in the woods and long walks on the hills and valleys around his village. Email him for story ideas and interviews at andrei@romania-insider.com. 

 

OTP Bank Romania expects 8% year-end inflation and more rate hikes

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) will further increase the refinancing rate this year, and it will bring it above 2% during 2022 given that the headline inflation could hit 8% at the end of the year, according to experts of OTP Bank Romania quoted by Cursdeguvernare.ro.

The inflation rate at the end of the year could even reach 8% if a further increase in the price of energy for consumers is adopted, given the evolution of the international gas market. Most of this growth is not reflected in core inflation, as it is caused by higher energy prices.

But the strong economic recovery and decent wage growth generate a risk that the inflation expectations will rise, which could lead to an inflationary spiral, OTP Bank experts say.

"It is very important to place the BNR's decision in a regional perspective, in which other regional central banks have started to raise rates long before the Romanian central bank," say OTP Bank analysts.

The National Bank of Hungary has already increased its base rate by 120 bp to 1.8%. The Czech National Bank has already increased the base rate from 0.25% to 1.5% through two adjustments of 25 bp and 75 bp, respectively. And this is just the beginning because the market expects the Hungarian policy interest rate to reach 3.5% in 2 years, while the Czech policy interest rate could be raised to the 2.5-3% range.

(Photo: Shutterstock)

andrei@romania-insider.com

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Profile picture for user andreich
Andrei Chirileasa
Editor-in-Chief

Andrei studied finance at the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies and started his journalism career in 2004 with Ziarul Financiar, the leading financial newspaper in Romania, where he worked for ten years, the last six of which as editor of the capital markets section. He joined the Romania-Insider.com team in 2014 as editor and became Editor-in-Chief in 2016. He currently oversees the daily content published on Romania-Insider.com and likes to stay up to date with everything relevant in business, politics, and life in Romania. Andrei lives with his family in the countryside in Northern Romania, where he built their own house. In his free time, he studies horticulture and tends to his family’s garden. He enjoys foraging in the woods and long walks on the hills and valleys around his village. Email him for story ideas and interviews at andrei@romania-insider.com. 

 

OTP Bank Romania expects 8% year-end inflation and more rate hikes

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) will further increase the refinancing rate this year, and it will bring it above 2% during 2022 given that the headline inflation could hit 8% at the end of the year, according to experts of OTP Bank Romania quoted by Cursdeguvernare.ro.

The inflation rate at the end of the year could even reach 8% if a further increase in the price of energy for consumers is adopted, given the evolution of the international gas market. Most of this growth is not reflected in core inflation, as it is caused by higher energy prices.

But the strong economic recovery and decent wage growth generate a risk that the inflation expectations will rise, which could lead to an inflationary spiral, OTP Bank experts say.

"It is very important to place the BNR's decision in a regional perspective, in which other regional central banks have started to raise rates long before the Romanian central bank," say OTP Bank analysts.

The National Bank of Hungary has already increased its base rate by 120 bp to 1.8%. The Czech National Bank has already increased the base rate from 0.25% to 1.5% through two adjustments of 25 bp and 75 bp, respectively. And this is just the beginning because the market expects the Hungarian policy interest rate to reach 3.5% in 2 years, while the Czech policy interest rate could be raised to the 2.5-3% range.

(Photo: Shutterstock)

andrei@romania-insider.com

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