Romania’s industrial production index contracted by 4.6% y/y in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, marking the steepest decline since the lockdown in 2020, according to data published by the statistics office INS. In seasonally-adjusted terms, industrial output decreased by 0.4% q/q. 

In the core manufacturing sector, the production index plunged even more steeply, by 5.3% y/y, despite a positive 0.7% q/q advance. The segments of utilities (-0.5% y/y) and mining and quarrying (-1.5% y/y) posted more moderate negative growth rates. 

Over the past five years, the industrial output in Romania plunged by 8.8% y/y, with a 7.2% y/y decline in the core manufacturing segment. The activity in the segment of utilities, however, dropped by 19.4% over the five-year period. 

The food industry posted a marginal 0.1% y/y advance in Q1, but it boasts a robust 17.1% expansion over the past five years. It was surpassed by only a couple of other industries (manufacturing of electronic and optic devices and manufacturing of other transport means). The beverages sector has not demonstrated similar resilience, losing 6.8% on the year and 5.1% over the past five years. 

The steepest annual decline in Q1 was posted by the oil refining industry (-18.1% y/y), except for the composite segment of “other industrial activities” that plunged by nearly 27% y/y. The oil refining industry, also 19.5% down on a five-year term, was impacted by the planned technical outage of its refineries. 

The automobile industry posts steep declines both compared to last year and compared to five years ago, namely 16.1% y/y and 15.7% respectively, witnessing the problematic episode faced by Romania’s most relevant sector for its exports.

Romania’s industry is likely to mark the fourth consecutive year of decline, despite the managers’ expectations slightly improving in July.

The BCR Romania Manufacturing PMI crossed into expansion territory for the first time in just over two years, reaching 50.1 in July vs 48.8 in June, according to the research note published by Erste Group.

The stabilisation of the manufacturing output at the level reached in May (latest available data) would, however, imply a 3.3% contraction for the entire year, after 1.1%-1.2% annual contraction rates in 2024-2025 and a steeper 2.5% y/y contraction in 2023.

(Photo: Kanok Sulaiman/ Dreamstime)

iulian@romania-insider.com