Independent analysts believe Romania's GDP may grow by up to 7% this year

Romania's GDP could rise by up to 7% this year, according to independent analysts quoted by Ziarul Financiar daily, commenting on the latest forecast announced by the International Monetary Fund that improved its GDP growth projection for 2022 to 4.8%.

Romania's economy rose by 5.8% YoY in H1. Particularly the 2.1% QoQ advance in Q2 was a big surprise as it came on top of a 5.2% QoQ advance in Q1.

"Chances are that the economy will grow by 6% and even reach 7%. However, this will mean lower growth in 2023, around 2%, due to the base effect," explains Adrian Codirlaşu, vice-president of CFA Romania.

Ionuţ Dumitru, chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank, argues that "in theory, a 7% increase is possible, provided that there is no stagnation or decrease in Q3 and Q4. We don't think there will be an increase in Q3 compared to Q2 and Q4 compared to Q3. We think we will see declines because the industry is not working and agriculture is on the ground because of the drought. But an increase of 4.8% [as projected by the IMF] is not only probable, it is possible. This is our assessment."

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Natanael Alfredo/Dreamstime.com)

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Independent analysts believe Romania's GDP may grow by up to 7% this year

Romania's GDP could rise by up to 7% this year, according to independent analysts quoted by Ziarul Financiar daily, commenting on the latest forecast announced by the International Monetary Fund that improved its GDP growth projection for 2022 to 4.8%.

Romania's economy rose by 5.8% YoY in H1. Particularly the 2.1% QoQ advance in Q2 was a big surprise as it came on top of a 5.2% QoQ advance in Q1.

"Chances are that the economy will grow by 6% and even reach 7%. However, this will mean lower growth in 2023, around 2%, due to the base effect," explains Adrian Codirlaşu, vice-president of CFA Romania.

Ionuţ Dumitru, chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank, argues that "in theory, a 7% increase is possible, provided that there is no stagnation or decrease in Q3 and Q4. We don't think there will be an increase in Q3 compared to Q2 and Q4 compared to Q3. We think we will see declines because the industry is not working and agriculture is on the ground because of the drought. But an increase of 4.8% [as projected by the IMF] is not only probable, it is possible. This is our assessment."

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Natanael Alfredo/Dreamstime.com)

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