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Iulian Ernst
Senior Editor

Iulian studied physics at the University of Bucharest, and he sees himself as a physicist in the broadest sense of the word. He also studied economics at Charles University in Prague and Central European University in Budapest, after a master’s program in business administration at Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies. Since recently, he’s been exploring coding and data analysis for business and economics. As a freelancer, he worked for nearly two decades as an analyst for ISI Emerging Markets, Euromonitor International, Business New Europe, but also as a consultant for OMV Petrom and UkrAgroConsult. Iulian was part of the founding team of Ziarul Financiar. At Romania Insider, which he joined in 2018, he is reviewing the latest economic developments for the premium bulletins and newsletters. He would gladly discuss topics such as macroeconomics, emerging markets, Prague, energy sector including renewable, Led Zeppelin, financial services, as well as tech start-ups and innovative technologies. Email him at iulian@romania-insider.com. 

 

S&P doesn’t see imminent fiscal risk in Romania

International rating agency S&P said on September 14 that it does not expect imminent risks to Romania’s near-term fiscal consolidation following the resignation of USR-PLUS ministers on September 7. “Nevertheless, should the political deadlock persist, it could disrupt progress on much-needed fiscal reform,” it concludes on a note leaving the door open to a rather broad range of scenarios.

The absorption of EU funds and fiscal reforms are key to stabilizing the country’s fiscal and external positions, the rating agency’s statement reads.

The rather positive comment may look surprising if regarded from a short-term perspective. But from a longer-term perspective, the impact of the current protracted political turmoil has a much smaller impact on the fiscal policy compared to last year when the Social Democrats were threatening to damage the public finance sustainability with bills passed on a weekly basis, such as the one on 40% rise of the public pensions.

In April this year, S&P was the last of the major three to revise the country’s outlook to stable (from negative) in response to the new Government’s fiscal consolidation plans. The agency will review the country’s ratings on October 15. Until then, the political outlook will gain more visibility.

Under the baseline scenario, S&P assumes that the Government would aim to preserve its capacity to function over the short term in order to contract this funding, “which we understand is ready to be disbursed,” the agency reads.

In the rating agency’s view, the Government passing last week the budget revision “suggests that there is [enough] capacity to execute policy.” 

andrei@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Dreamstime.com)

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Profile picture for user iuliane
Iulian Ernst
Senior Editor

Iulian studied physics at the University of Bucharest, and he sees himself as a physicist in the broadest sense of the word. He also studied economics at Charles University in Prague and Central European University in Budapest, after a master’s program in business administration at Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies. Since recently, he’s been exploring coding and data analysis for business and economics. As a freelancer, he worked for nearly two decades as an analyst for ISI Emerging Markets, Euromonitor International, Business New Europe, but also as a consultant for OMV Petrom and UkrAgroConsult. Iulian was part of the founding team of Ziarul Financiar. At Romania Insider, which he joined in 2018, he is reviewing the latest economic developments for the premium bulletins and newsletters. He would gladly discuss topics such as macroeconomics, emerging markets, Prague, energy sector including renewable, Led Zeppelin, financial services, as well as tech start-ups and innovative technologies. Email him at iulian@romania-insider.com. 

 

S&P doesn’t see imminent fiscal risk in Romania

International rating agency S&P said on September 14 that it does not expect imminent risks to Romania’s near-term fiscal consolidation following the resignation of USR-PLUS ministers on September 7. “Nevertheless, should the political deadlock persist, it could disrupt progress on much-needed fiscal reform,” it concludes on a note leaving the door open to a rather broad range of scenarios.

The absorption of EU funds and fiscal reforms are key to stabilizing the country’s fiscal and external positions, the rating agency’s statement reads.

The rather positive comment may look surprising if regarded from a short-term perspective. But from a longer-term perspective, the impact of the current protracted political turmoil has a much smaller impact on the fiscal policy compared to last year when the Social Democrats were threatening to damage the public finance sustainability with bills passed on a weekly basis, such as the one on 40% rise of the public pensions.

In April this year, S&P was the last of the major three to revise the country’s outlook to stable (from negative) in response to the new Government’s fiscal consolidation plans. The agency will review the country’s ratings on October 15. Until then, the political outlook will gain more visibility.

Under the baseline scenario, S&P assumes that the Government would aim to preserve its capacity to function over the short term in order to contract this funding, “which we understand is ready to be disbursed,” the agency reads.

In the rating agency’s view, the Government passing last week the budget revision “suggests that there is [enough] capacity to execute policy.” 

andrei@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Dreamstime.com)

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