Romanian Central Bank revises economic growth forecast upwards for this year


Romania’s Central Bank (BNR) recently revised the economic growth forecast this year to more than 2 percent, based on changes in exports, industrial production and on the good agricultural year, the BNR governor Mugur Isarescu (in picture) recently said.

“Our econometric model does not target economic growth, which is an element that helps us forecast inflation. So do not take our forecast as the best “, said Isarescu. He pointed out that the estimation based on BNR’s existing data is a prudent one.

According to Isărescu, consumption raises some problems, and so do budget revenues, while economic growth is based heavily on exports.The main driver of growth in the first semester has been the development of industrial production for export.

The recent consecutive decreases of the policy rate and other measures that will be taken by the BNR will affect the economy, but with a six-month delay.

“We also rely on the psychological effects to boost confidence in the economic activity,” Isărescu said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently improved Romania’s economic growth forecast for this year to 2 percent, and to 2.25 percent for next year, amid stronger exports in the first half of 2013 and a good agricultural production. The previous economic growth forecasts were of 1.6 percent for 2013 and 2 percent for 2014.

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(photo source: Agerpres)


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